Hmmm... I think the author's idea could maybe possibly happen. Here's how: hundreds of years ago if you needed a machine you'd need someone to hand build it and you'd get it exactly to spec. Mass production reduces the exactness of the spec but allows significant cost savings.
Future software will probably no longer be so hand tuned. It will probably be slow, and capable of doing way more than you need. Its individual components will be overpowered and clunky. But the end result will fulfill your needs and be easy to produce quickly.
How? Reusable business components. Most companies, though unique, are based on standard business principles, like inventory management, accounting, etc.. Big clunky, ready to go components could be configured to your company's needs. Sure, that "configuration" could be called a form of programming, but the end result is that the customer can get his product much faster and at a lower cost.
Embeded specialized systems may still need to be produced the slow way.
There is a strong economic incentive to make software production more efficient. Especially if it ceases to be a great generator of income in the US. |
java.net RSS Feeds
